بررسی خوداتکـایی انفعالی صنعت پتروشیمی ایران
در مقایسه با نگرش سیستمی به این صنعت
دکتر علی محمدی پور
سال 1388
وضعیت داوری مقاله: مقاله حاضر، بعنوان سومین مقاله در نشریه علمی ترویجی صنعت و دانشگاه (سال دوم، شماره 3 و 4 بهار و تابستان سال 1388) جمعیت ایرانی پیشبرد ارتباط صنعت و دانشگاه به طور کامل به چاپ رسیده است. چکیده انگلیسی این مقاله ذیلاً تقدیم می گردد:
A survey of passive self-dependence of Iran petrochemical industry
In contrast with systemic view on this industry
Abstract:
Self- dependence is a concept which can reflect a closed economical system in most of previous economical study, and in most cases become noteworthy in closed economical structure and political social communication. Nevertheless, todays economic has different meaning for self- dependence. By globalization view and set free the economical mechanism, it should be noted that, self- dependence has two primary meaning: first the minimum dependence in production process and second, minimum dependence in net production process and trading with foreign countries (specially, with specific country). So, in recent studies, making high degree of dependency of international economy, next to making dependency in domestic economy, could be interpreted as increasing a relativity self-dependence, but it is possible whether the production process done with least dependence on foreign countries. If we investigate Iran petrochemical industry regardless to upward and downward relationship, after displaying the opportunities and restrictions of Iran petrochemical industry, we will analyze the self-dependence due to production process with parameters such as how to provide raw material, proficiency, science, technology and machinery. Generally this survey shows high relativity self-dependence in this industry. In other words, examining the economic-joinery self-dependence index of petrochemical industry in 18 years period (after war, 69-86) shows: extreme reduction in Degree of Dependence to Trade of Petrochemical products, new leap in increasing trend of Level of International Trade of them from 82, since 74 rapid accretion in Integration of International Trade of Petrochemical products and finally gradual reduction in Share of International Trade of Petrochemical industry from trade of country thereupon reducing trend of Exchange Conducting Index of Petrochemical industry and afterwards salient increase of it thereupon extreme increasing trend of Exchange Bringing Index of Petrochemical industry. Also by using Granger causality test we find that there exist two sided relationship between economic self-dependence index of Iran's petrochemical industry and economical growth in this industry. Up to this point, we are investigating petrochemical industry passivity, regardless to previous and future relationship in production process. But systematic view on industrial group inclusive petrochemical industry (in middle) shows non self-dependence of this set, therefore of non development in further petrochemical industry (that gets raw material from petrochemical industry). Indeed high amount of raw material such as oil and gas was the main reason for the very self-dependence of petrochemical industry; but according systematic view is one of the most important propellants of skew development in this system.
Key words: economic self-dependence index of petrochemical industry, Degree of Dependence to Trade of Petrochemical products (DDTP), Level of International Trade of Petrochemical products (LITP), Integration of International Trade of Petrochemical products (IITP) and Share of International Trade of Petrochemical industry from trade of country (SITP).
